The life and death of online communities | Arthritis Information
The life and death of online communities
The more heterogeneous the community of an online chat channel, the more chances the channel has to survive over time. This has been concluded in a new joint study carried out by researchers of the University of Haifa and the New Jersey Institute of Technology. "This study has shown that an essentially social characteristic significantly influences the survival chances of an online community," says Dr. Daphne Raban of the University of Haifa who took part in the study. The study, headed by Dr. Quentin Jones of the New Jersey Institute of Technology with Dr. Mihai Moldovan of NJIT and Dr. Raban, aimed to examine what factors could best predict the chances of an online community to survive over time. Researchers have previously claimed that there are too many variables influencing the survival or demise of such channels and that there is therefore no way of testing it, and earlier studies have primarily focused on group size and activity. The current study included an analysis of social characteristics, such as the group's homogeneity and heterogeneity. A group is considered homogeneous when its member turnover is small - namely, when the members who established the group are still the main members after some time. A group is considered heterogeneous when it has turnover and new members are continuously joining it.
A sample 282 chat channels all "born" on the same month was used for survival analysis which explored the relationship between the overall user activity in each channel at its inception and the channel's life expectancy. The researchers carried out the survival analysis over the course of six months after "birth". A chat channel was considered "born" when at least three members had exchanged at least four messages in 20 minutes. It was considered "dead" when it had zero activity for four weeks.
The researchers observed the influences of variables at four points of time: two hours after "birth"; on the channel's first day of activity; over its first week of activity; and over its first two weeks of activity.
Results show that the variable that best predicts the chances of a community to survive is its level of heterogeneity: the greater the member turnover, the higher the chances that the group will sustain itself over time. On the other hand, the number of members and the number of actual message posters do not predict the chances of survival.
According to the current study, another reliable predictor is the number of messages that are posted between members of an online community. This number does not have much significance over the first two hours of the group's existence, but the higher the number of messages between members over the following three time phases, the higher the chances of the community's survival over time. The study also revealed that if the ratio between the number of messages and the number of members in a group remains the same after two weeks of the community's activity, the chances of "death" are higher, while an irregular ratio predicts survival. It should be noted that neither an increasing ratio of messages between members nor a decreasing ratio were found to influence the chances of survival.
"The present study shows that prediction of an online community's survival chances cannot be based on quantitative data relating to the size of the group or even to its growth rate alone. A social predictor, on the other hand, can much better predict its chances," concludes Dr. Raban.
This board is no longer functioning due to a lot of input from yourself Lev. There is a reason for that and you know it .LOL I think it is a bit slow because of the nice weather.[QUOTE=SnowOwl]I know I've been busy with spring cleaning and organizing, and have just wanted to be outside more to cool off the cabin fever with fresh soft breezes. There are always plenty of lurkers on board, when they have something to share, they'll post. The winter doldrums are soon to be a thing of the past, and spring will bring different sorts of RA challenges as well as fresh topics, like gardening, talk of the spring and summer weddings. I think I've brewed an ulcer but haven't wanted to dwell on it, spring feels like a time to get outside of ones own head. So I can understand why the board would slow down, but it's still here, eh.[/QUOTE]
I too have been busy with an upcoming bathroom remodel and I'm getting ready to go visit my daughter in North Carolina.
People may not be posting, but as Snow said, they are definately lurking. This board, like every other one I post on goes in cycles...It is absolutely ridiculous to blame this slowdown on any poster here...
People have jobs, families and lives! They don't spend every waking minute they have posting on a message board Like you all I've been super busy with work, volunteering, and everyday activities all with a flare. I still haven't started Simponi but should be starting this week. Am waiting for the order from the specialty pharmacy. Life's very busy right now and I post sometimes but not regularly. This isn't the only forum I'm a member of. Like Lynn said, it's cyclic and will return to being busy once again. LindyI take issue with the research. For one thing, it starts talking about chats and changes to forums and message boards which are not the same things. Assuming they are including all three in general, they are basing success and death on some made up scale. I belong to a chat that might be considered dead. It is the same small group of us getting together sometimes only an hour a week. It's not growing but it's not dead, it serves us well. I see forums and chats breaking off into small groups of like minded people where growth isn't necessarily the goal. In fact, keeping people out may be preferable.
There are new ways for people to connect. Facebook and twitter are attracting people, it's a concise way to get info without spending as much time online. Public blogs are gaining popularity and since they have space for comments there are people communicating and getting to know one another.
Another flaw is that they seem to assume that there will be a continuing supply of members to keep forums heterogeneous. I don't see a lot of younger people joining chats and forums. Now there are more health organizations and medical sites, someone may want to belong to a community but they don't need to do it for info as much as we did 5 years ago.
The internet is always transitioning and I don't think their research will be relevant long enough to have been worth the money the study cost.
I agree with what has already been posted. The nice weather, facebook and twitter has decreased chatters on all chat lines, however we are on here for our disease's and the added info from each other, so hopefully we will continue on this road.
It has nothing to do with Lev. I find him to be a very interesting, colorful, intelligent man and he tells it like it is whether you want to hear it or not.
I have been busy too. My grandsons, son, and daughter in law moved back to the city I live, SO I have been really busy. But its a good kinda busy. I am really enjoying seeing them and spending time with them, its great to have the family back together again.
For grins and giggles my RA seems to be kicking up and its no fun whatsoever!!
Lori
tinkster I am sorry to hear that your RA is acting up. Nice to know that you have some family near by. I hope you get to feelling better soon.I don't have a lot of faith in that study. I own and manage a website... We are a group that spun off of a larger group... and have been together for four years. We rarely get new members, but about half of us (68) are steady contributors to the site. while the others are occasional contributors..........We enjoy discussing the news, our families, lives and a multitude of any and everything....
Participation does fluctuate.... It does ebb and flow dependent on our lives and the seasons.... Winter is often more active and summer is much less active.....
Sandra has no idea of what she speaks.... this has nothing to do w/ Larry's involvement on the board.... Anyone can see that he makes major contributions to information...which is ultimately what this board is for...quickly followed by support.. We have a lot of both here.. info and support....
levlarry2010-03-11 06:54:27I don't know if it has enough data to be accurate, but it's a cool site.
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